I dont know what Im more surprised by. The fact the Walk the Line didnt get nominated for Best Picture or that only 7 of the 12 Enron jurors have college educations. Skilling and Lay are screwed.
Heres my first pass at Oscar pic picks. Technical categories excluded. And other categories I dont really care about.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: Joaquin Phoenix will upset Hoffman. This is Philips first nomination and Joaquin did not win for Gladiator and should have.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Clooney wont win for director or writer, so he should win here.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: Reese, no question. We really dont want a Desperate Housewife with a penis to win an Oscar.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: At least one foreigner must win every year. This year, its Rachel Weisz.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR: Wallace & Gromit, hands down. These guys have never lost.
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING: Ang Lee.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Murderball. Everyone will be rooting for the Penguins, but the Academy rarely likes to pick the crowd favorite here.
BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR: Brokeback Mountain. Yawn.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Brokeback will win since they will get stiffed in the acting categories. Although Capote could get the nod here also.